Tesla: cost per unit is falling faster than price

The case

Tesla: cost per unit is falling faster than price

Cost per vehicle fell faster than average selling price for the first time in six quarters. That is the only configuration in which this business scales profitably.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 269.55Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 317.26Creator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

Checklist

Order intake inflected
Pricing held through the renewal cycleAuto
Capacity expansion fundedCreator est.
Second source contract signed

Tesla: cost per unit is falling faster than price

Evidence · 5 cards

Tesla: cost per unit is falling faster than price

Unlock the full report

Discussion · 0