Former product lead at a neobank. I stress-test take rates, CAC and regulatory risk.

Interest-bearing deposit beta rolled over in the last disclosure and the mix shift out of non-interest-bearing has stopped. Net interest income guidance is set up to be raised.
Working capital release and lower maintenance capex mean cash earnings run well ahead of GAAP. On cash, this is materially cheaper than the screen suggests.



Fee lines grew through a period when spread income did not, which is what a diversified franchise is supposed to do and rarely does.
Multi-year procurement commitments have replaced annual appropriations across four major buyers. The order books that follow do not behave like a cycle.
Two of the three reasons for the historical discount have been addressed. The multiple has not moved.
Fee lines grew through a period when spread income did not, which is what a diversified franchise is supposed to do and rarely does.
The gap to global peers widened again this quarter while the earnings gap did not. What remains is a risk premium on process rather than on profits.
Capital has been the constraint for three years and it stopped being one this quarter.
Loan yields have stopped rising while funding costs have not fully stopped. That spread is the whole guide.