Mastercard: the funding cost inflection already happened

The case

Mastercard: the funding cost inflection already happened

Interest-bearing deposit beta rolled over in the last disclosure and the mix shift out of non-interest-bearing has stopped. Net interest income guidance is set up to be raised.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 501.82Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 579.3Creator est.

Mastercard: the funding cost inflection already happened

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Mastercard: the funding cost inflection already happened

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