NOTE
The valuation gap widened and the earnings gap did not
The discount to global peers widened again this quarter while relative earnings did not. What is left is a risk premium on process rather than on profits.
That matters because governance is the component a company can actually address on its own timetable. Several have, and the market has not yet differentiated between those that did and those that did not.
The trade this implies is relative rather than directional: own the names that have closed the disclosure gap against the ones that have not, rather than owning the market and waiting for a re-rating that may not be general.
Decompose the discount and it has historically had three components: political risk, liquidity, and governance and disclosure standards. The first is unchanged, the second has improved materially with index inclusion, and the third is where the remaining gap sits.
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