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Lena Kowalczyk
@LENA_KOWAL · JOINED 2025
3.8K FOLLOWERS
Consumer and software. Earnings driven.
Short-horizon work around prints. Unit economics and churn, not slide decks.
LATEST
0:18
RESEARCHAI BUILDOUTVIDEO · THESIS
Microsoft: the cost programme has slipped twice without a new date
The savings target has been reiterated without a revised timeline. Reiterating the number while moving the date is how these programmes fail slowly.
AUG 21, 2026 · 12,613 VIEWS
Everything
0:18
RESEARCHAI BUILDOUTVIDEO · THESIS
Microsoft: the cost programme has slipped twice without a new date
AUG 21, 2026 · 12,613 VIEWS
0:17
RESEARCHSOFTWAREVIDEO · THESIS
Snowflake: great asset, fully discounted
AUG 18, 2026 · 4,169 VIEWS
0:20
CALLMSFTShortVIDEO · CALL
Microsoft: the margin bridge has one bad assumption in it
AUG 18, 2026 · 254 VIEWS
NOTEISRAEL
The valuation gap widened and the earnings gap did not
The discount to global peers widened again this quarter while relative earnings did not. What is left is a risk premium on process rather than on profits.
AUG 14, 2026 · 1,980 VIEWS
CALLSHOPLong
Shopify: monetisation is improving on mix rather than on price
The platform is monetising better on the same transaction. That is a product outcome rather than a pricing decision, and it does not invite the same response.
JUL 29, 2026 · 1,811 VIEWS · 73.88 → 82.64 · +11.9%
CALLMSFTShort
Microsoft: the aggregate is hiding the cohort
Total seats keep rising while the first enterprise cohort renews below plan. The blended number conceals that for roughly two more quarters.
JUL 24, 2026 · 7,109 VIEWS
NOTESOFTWARE
Salesforce: attach is real and it is not discounted
The AI SKUs are attaching to existing accounts without the discounting that usually accompanies a new module. That is unusual and it is not in the model.
JUL 1, 2026 · 9,397 VIEWS
CALLSHOPLongCALL · CARDS
Shopify: the unit economics crossed over this year
Contribution per transaction turned positive across every major market this year, not just the mature ones. Scale now helps rather than hurts.
JUN 24, 2026 · 2,787 VIEWS
RESEARCHSHOPLongCALL · THESIS
Shopify: contribution margin per order is finally positive at scale
Contribution per transaction turned positive across every major market this year, not just the mature ones. Scale now helps rather than hurts.
JUN 7, 2026 · 7,707 VIEWS · 76.15 → 80.84 · +6.2%