Shopify: contribution margin per order is finally positive at scale

Contribution per transaction turned positive across every major market this year, not just the mature ones. Scale now helps rather than hurts.

Lena Kowalczyk@lena_kowal

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Discussion · 4

Ines FerreiraJUN 10

I hold the other side of this. The exclusivity window is the part the market keeps mispricing. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.

Sam WhitfieldJUN 8

Useful framing. The mix argument is the part I had not considered properly. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?

Marco BianchiJUN 7

Been on the sidelines on this one. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?

Omri ShakedJUN 7

This changed my mind. The exclusivity window is the part the market keeps mispricing. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?

SHOPLong

Near

Entry$76.15

Resolved$80.84

14d horizon

PositionNo position

Compensation

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ViewsThese are the creator's own views

This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.