Shopify: the unit economics crossed over this year

The driver is contribution margin per transaction, which nets incentives out of revenue. A business can grow gross revenue indefinitely at negative contribution, so the crossover is the only event that matters. Contribution margin is now broken out by market. It turned positive in the newest markets this year, which is the first time the cohort curve has looked the same outside the original geography. The position: long on Shopify, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is that the capex earns its return and the disclosure simply lags. That has happened in this sector before and it took two years to become visible.