Goldman Sachs: fee income is now carrying the quarter
The market values this as a rate-sensitive balance sheet. Half the earnings no longer behave that way.
Evidence · 2 cards
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Discussion · 8
Not convinced, but well argued. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?
You are right that I skipped over that. Rates hit the multiple rather than the earnings path. A 50bp move costs perhaps two turns and does not touch the thesis.
Useful framing. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. The contract structure matters more than the headline rate. What is the level where you would walk away?
Reasonable, and I have thought about it a lot. It survives a soft guide. It does not survive a second one, which is why the horizon is short.
Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?
Reading this against my own model. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
Agreed on the first part, not the second. The read-across is real for the closest comparable and much weaker beyond it, because the contract structures differ.