Chevron: a fine business with an unhedgeable input
Everything company-specific is working. The earnings are still primarily a function of a price nobody in this position can forecast.
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Discussion · 7
This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
Useful framing. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
That is where I would push back. The sell side has the direction and not the magnitude, and the magnitude is the entire trade here.
Not convinced, but well argued. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
I hold the other side of this. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
Agreed on the first part, not the second. It survives a soft guide. It does not survive a second one, which is why the horizon is short.
I came in sceptical. The channel data is what makes this hard to dismiss. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?