Graham-Dodd mindset with a macro overlay. I wait for forced sellers.

The funding mechanism changed, which changes the durability of the revenue rather than just its level.



Discipline is only observable under temptation, and this was the test.
The company held its reinvestment rate through a price environment that historically triggers overbuilding. That is the whole investment case in this sector.
Everything company-specific is working. The earnings are still primarily a function of a price nobody in this position can forecast.
Discipline is only observable under temptation, and this was the test.
Per-share metrics are improving because the share count is falling. The asset is not improving.
The installed base generates recurring revenue that the cycle does not touch, and it has grown every year for a decade.
The capital is committed and the demand to fill it is contracted. That is an unusually low-risk expansion.