Caterpillar: this demand is structural, not cyclical

The economics turn on the funding mechanism. Multi-year commitments remove the annual re-authorisation risk, which lengthens the revenue duration and should compress the discount rate applied to it. The commitments are public. Four major buyers have moved to multi-year procurement frameworks, which is a documented change in mechanism rather than an inference from order flow. The position: long on Caterpillar, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The main risk is political: multi-year commitments can be unwound by a change in government, and the duration argument depends on them not being.