Goldman Sachs: deposit costs peaked before consensus thinks

The mechanism is deposit beta, the share of a rate move that passes into funding cost. Beta peaks after the rate cycle does, so the margin trough lags the rate peak by two to three quarters and then reverses mechanically. The disclosure is explicit. Interest-bearing deposit beta declined sequentially for the first time this cycle and the non-interest-bearing mix was flat, which together mark the funding cost peak. The position: long on Goldman Sachs, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is that the curve steepens faster than assumed, which would make the repricing argument wrong in the direction that costs the most.