CALLMU4 months ago6.8Kviews

Micron: order intake bottomed and nobody has marked it

Bookings troughed two quarters ago and the revision cycle follows intake with a lag. Consensus is still anchored to the trough print.

Nadia Haddad@nadia_haddad

The driver is the lead-time signal. Component lead times extend before bookings recover and bookings recover before revisions turn, so the observable sequence runs about two quarters ahead of the consensus number. The qualification pipeline is visible in the customer disclosures rather than this company's. Two named accounts moved programmes into validation last quarter, which dates the revenue rather than merely implying it. The position: long on Micron, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is a demand shock large enough to make the supply argument irrelevant. If end demand rolls over, a packaging queue stops being a constraint and starts being idle capacity, and the mix argument goes with it.

Discussion · 8

Dana KatzMAY 26

This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The capital intensity point is the one I keep coming back to. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?

Nadia HaddadAuthorMAY 25

Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (648)

Pauline VidalMAY 26

Finally someone put numbers on this. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. Any view on how the read-across affects the rest of the group?

Ines FerreiraMAY 26

Good piece. The mix argument is the part I had not considered properly. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?

Ines FerreiraMAY 26

This is the second-order point everyone skips. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?

Sam WhitfieldMAY 26

Useful framing. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?

Noa BergmanMAY 24

I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?

Nadia HaddadAuthorMAY 25

Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (651)