DRAM, NAND and HBM. The cycle is the thesis; timing it is the job.

Bookings troughed two quarters ago and the revision cycle follows intake with a lag. Consensus is still anchored to the trough print.



Attach on the adjacent silicon has risen for four consecutive quarters off a much smaller base. Mix alone carries the gross margin without a single extra unit shipped.
Contract pricing held firm while the commodity tier rolled over. There is no second source at the required specification, which makes this structural rather than cyclical.
Bookings troughed two quarters ago and the revision cycle follows intake with a lag. Consensus is still anchored to the trough print.
Lead times have started extending again at the component level. That has preceded every upturn in this industry and it has never once been priced early.
Nobody wants a single supplier for a component this strategic. That procurement reflex is worth more to this name than any benchmark win.
The bottleneck has migrated from lithography to packaging and power. That changes who captures the margin on every incremental unit.
Large buyers are writing second-source clauses into every accelerator contract. In a supply-constrained market the alternative prices far closer to the incumbent than the model assumes.
Bookings troughed two quarters ago and the revision cycle follows intake with a lag. Consensus is still anchored to the trough print.