Micron: the cycle turned two quarters before the revisions will
Lead times have started extending again at the component level. That has preceded every upturn in this industry and it has never once been priced early.
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Discussion · 5
Finally someone put numbers on this. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (642)
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. The contract structure matters more than the headline rate. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.
Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (640)
Finally someone put numbers on this. The exclusivity window is the part the market keeps mispricing. What would you need to see to add rather than hold?