CALLPLTRabout 2 months ago7.2Kviews

Palantir: the renewal cohort is converting above plan

Renewal cohorts are converting at higher realised pricing than management guided. The churn everyone feared has appeared in seat counts and not in dollars.

Elior Shani@elior_shani

The transmission is through realised price rather than list price. Discounting happens at the deal level, so realised price per seat captures pricing power that the published price schedule hides entirely. Realised pricing is disclosed indirectly but consistently. Revenue per account rose faster than seat count in each of the last five quarters, which only happens when discounting is narrowing. The position: long on Palantir, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. What breaks this is a re-acceleration in the weak cohort. Renewal behaviour has inflected before on a single product release, and one good release would invalidate the cohort argument entirely.

Discussion · 6

Pauline VidalJUL 19

This is the second-order point everyone skips. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?

Elior ShaniAuthorJUL 19

Fair challenge. Invalidation is a close below the lock price on volume, and I should have written that into the card rather than leaving it implicit. (948)

Omri ShakedJUL 19

Agree with the direction, less with the magnitude. The mix argument is the part I had not considered properly. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?

Noa BergmanJUL 17

Reading this against my own model. The capital intensity point is the one I keep coming back to. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?

Ines FerreiraJUL 19

This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?

Noa BergmanJUL 17

This is the clearest write-up I have seen on the name. The margin bridge is doing more work here than is acknowledged. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?