Occidental: the project breakeven is below where the market models it
The latest development phase came in ahead of schedule and under budget. Full-cycle breakeven for the block is now low enough to turn the dividend into a lower-beta instrument.
Evidence · 4 cards
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Discussion · 8
Reading this against my own model. The cohort split is the detail that everyone leaves out. How much of this do you think is already in the buy side's numbers?
Useful framing. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.
I think the setup matters more than the thesis here. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. What is the level where you would walk away?
Not convinced, but well argued. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
Been long since the last one. The elasticity decay across the price actions is the tell. How much does this depend on the macro cooperating?
Agreed on the first part, not the second. I would size it smaller at a higher entry rather than skip it, because the asymmetry degrades gradually rather than cliff-edges.
Not convinced, but well argued. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. What is the base rate on this kind of setup working?
This lines up with what I saw in the filings. The depreciation schedule really is the whole disagreement. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?