Upstream, LNG and grid bottlenecks. Earnings revisions are the edge.

The asset base got cheaper to run while the sector multiple stayed where it was.



Three of the four largest datacenter corridors have utility interconnect backlogs past 2027. Everything downstream of that queue is capacity-gated regardless of chip supply.
The subsidy was the crutch and it is no longer load-bearing in the markets that set the price.
The company held its reinvestment rate through a price environment that historically triggers overbuilding. That is the whole investment case in this sector.
The company held its reinvestment rate through a price environment that historically triggers overbuilding. That is the whole investment case in this sector.
The asset base got cheaper to run while the sector multiple stayed where it was.
Unsubsidised four-hour storage clears in three markets on merchant economics alone. That changes who the buyer is and how the contracts are written.