SLB: the project breakeven is below where the market models it
The latest development phase came in ahead of schedule and under budget. Full-cycle breakeven for the block is now low enough to turn the dividend into a lower-beta instrument.
Evidence · 4 cards
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Discussion · 7
Respectfully, I think this overstates it. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. What does the bear actually have to be right about?
Been long since the last one. The destocking signature is textbook and nobody is naming it. Interested in what the kill switch looks like in practice.
Fair challenge. That is the objection in the steelman card. My answer is that the supply response is slower this time, which changes the timing rather than the direction.
Finally someone put numbers on this. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. What does the bear actually have to be right about?
Good piece. The regulatory ceiling being quantified changes the model, not just the headline. How are you thinking about the timing risk here?
Good piece. The distinction between adequate reserves and the earnings path is well made. Does the same logic apply to the closest comparable?
Strong piece, one objection. The utilisation assumption is where I disagree. Curious whether you would still size it the same at a higher entry.