Pfizer: the science is right and the entry is not

The constraint is that both scale-up and access have to work at once. They are independent risks, so the joint probability is materially lower than either alone, which is what a full price ignores. The valuation embeds full capacity and full access on the disclosed timeline, with no allowance for the slippage that has occurred in two of the last three scale-ups in this category. The position: no call. This is a name I want to own and not at this level, so there is nothing locked here and nothing for the record to grade. If the entry improves I will say so in a piece that does carry a call. What breaks this is a coverage expansion that re-accelerates scripts. Access decisions are revisited annually and one reversal would invalidate the deceleration argument.