Bank Hapoalim: the valuation gap widened and the earnings gap did not

Two of the three reasons for the historical discount have been addressed. The multiple has not moved.

Gabriel Stern@gabriel_stern

Evidence · 4 cards

The case

Bank Hapoalim: the valuation gap widened and the earnings gap did not

Two of the three reasons for the historical discount have been addressed. The multiple has not moved.

The edge

The Street says

Consensus models the cycle turning in the second half
Sell-side target clusters within 8% of spotAuto

I say

The turn already happened in order intake two quarters ago
My number is 14% above the street on the out yearCreator est.

Path to target

Entry: 3618.13Auto
Out-year EPS: +18% vs consensusCreator est.
Exit multiple: 22x, in line with the last cycle peakCreator est.
= Target: 4163.59Creator est.

Catalyst timeline

JUL 18, 2026 · PAST
Q results, margin guide reiterated
AUG 12, 2026 · PAST
Analyst day, capex framework updated
SEP 11, 2026
Next print, the number that decides this

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Discussion · 0

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POLI.TALong

Hit

Entry$3,618.13

Resolved$4,277.62

14d horizon

PositionNo position

Compensation

Certified independent

ViewsThese are the creator's own views

This is research, not financial advice. Calls lock at publish and are graded by the market; they can be and often are wrong. Do your own research and consider your own circumstances before acting.