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Gabriel Stern
@GABRIEL_STERN · JOINED 2025
4.7K FOLLOWERS
Banks and credit, US and Israel.
Deposit betas, reserve builds and the parts of a bank that break first.
LATEST
0:22
CALLPOLI.TALongVIDEO · CALL · CARDS
Bank Hapoalim: the non-spread businesses have compounded through the cycle
Fee lines grew through a period when spread income did not, which is what a diversified franchise is supposed to do and rarely does.
AUG 21, 2026 · 6,792 VIEWS · 3122.81 → 7761.00 · +148.5%
Everything
0:22
CALLPOLI.TALongVIDEO · CALL · CARDS
Bank Hapoalim: the non-spread businesses have compounded through the cycle
AUG 21, 2026 · 6,792 VIEWS · 3122.81 → 7761.00 · +148.5%
0:20
RESEARCHLUMI.TALongVIDEO · CALL · THESIS
Bank Leumi: deposit costs peaked before consensus thinks
AUG 20, 2026 · 3,639 VIEWS · 3066.92 → 7916.00 · +158.1%
0:18
RESEARCHRATESVIDEO · THESIS
JPMorgan: best in class, priced like it
AUG 17, 2026 · 1,436 VIEWS
RESEARCHISRAELTHESIS · CARDS
Bank Hapoalim: the discount is now a governance question, not an earnings one
Two of the three reasons for the historical discount have been addressed. The multiple has not moved.
AUG 17, 2026 · 1,231 VIEWS
CALLPOLI.TALong
Bank Hapoalim: the capital build is finished and the return is not priced
The bank cleared its required ratio with a buffer and the regulatory calendar is clear. What follows is distribution, and the payout is not in the multiple.
AUG 16, 2026 · 4,749 VIEWS · 3654.97 → 7720.00 · +111.2%
CALLPOLI.TALong
Bank Hapoalim: excess capital is about to become a distribution story
Capital has been the constraint for three years and it stopped being one this quarter.
AUG 16, 2026 · 8,704 VIEWS · 3655.24 → 7671.00 · +109.9%
RESEARCHRATESTHESIS
JPMorgan: peak returns on equity is a poor entry point
Quality is not in dispute. The price assumes the current return on equity is the through-cycle number, and it is not.
AUG 15, 2026 · 11,089 VIEWS
RESEARCHISRAELTHESIS
Bank Leumi: the funding cost inflection already happened
The expensive part of the funding rebuild is behind this bank. The market is still modelling it as ahead.
AUG 1, 2026 · 1,927 VIEWS
NOTEISRAEL
Bank Leumi: the efficiency ratio inflected without a restructuring charge
The cost base has been rebuilt and the revenue is arriving on top of it rather than alongside it.
JUL 19, 2026 · 4,715 VIEWS
CALLPOLI.TALong
Bank Hapoalim: the efficiency ratio inflected without a restructuring charge
The cost base has been rebuilt and the revenue is arriving on top of it rather than alongside it.
JUL 2, 2026 · 6,766 VIEWS · 3129.42 → 7661.00 · +144.8%
RESEARCHPOLI.TALongCALL · THESIS · CARDS
Bank Hapoalim: the valuation gap widened and the earnings gap did not
Two of the three reasons for the historical discount have been addressed. The multiple has not moved.
JUN 1, 2026 · 4,888 VIEWS · 3618.13 → 4277.62 · +18.2%