Goldman Sachs: excess capital is about to become a distribution story

The economics turn on the regulatory capital constraint. Above the required ratio plus buffer, retained earnings have no productive use inside the bank, so they are returned; below it, they are trapped. Capital is the cleanest number here. The bank finished above its required ratio with a meaningful buffer and management confirmed no further build is planned. The position: long on Goldman Sachs, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The risk is that the curve steepens faster than assumed, which would make the repricing argument wrong in the direction that costs the most.