Alphabet: the unit economics crossed over this year

The driver is contribution margin per transaction, which nets incentives out of revenue. A business can grow gross revenue indefinitely at negative contribution, so the crossover is the only event that matters. Contribution margin is now broken out by market. It turned positive in the newest markets this year, which is the first time the cohort curve has looked the same outside the original geography. The position: long on Alphabet, entry locked at publication and the exit dated rather than open-ended. The target is stated in the call block above and the horizon with it. Sized to the catalyst rather than to conviction, with the invalidation written into the kill-switch card instead of left implicit. The main risk is competitive: a well-capitalised entrant willing to run negative contribution would reset the unit economics for everyone regardless of this company's discipline.