Goldman Sachs: the efficiency ratio inflected without a restructuring charge
The cost base has been rebuilt and the revenue is arriving on top of it rather than alongside it.
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Discussion · 6
Good to see an invalidation level actually stated. Splitting volume from price is what makes this legible. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
I hold the other side of this. The installed base argument is stronger than the cycle argument here. Would you underwrite this without the catalyst date?
Useful framing. The lag between intake and revisions is the whole trade. Does the thesis survive a soft guide next quarter?
Strong piece, one objection. Second source in a constrained market is genuinely underrated. Is there a cleaner way to express this than the equity?
That is where I would push back. Rates hit the multiple rather than the earnings path. A 50bp move costs perhaps two turns and does not touch the thesis.
Strong piece, one objection. The point about conversion rather than demand is the right one. What is the level where you would walk away?